Risk Analysis Team

Updated:October 14, 2009 17:03

AIRA PHASE A APPROACH

The risk assessment follows the recommendations in the National Academy of Sciences Special Report 293 – Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment. This project is divided into two phases, A and B. Phase A - Preliminary Risk Assessment consists of the eight distinct tasks:

♣ Traffic Study
♣ Baseline Spill Study
♣ Characterizing Spills from the Highest-Risk Accidents
♣ Consequence Analysis
♣ Accident Scenario and Causality Study
♣ Qualitative Assessment of Risk Reduction Options
♣ Evaluation of Risk Reduction Options
♣ Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options

 

Each task is briefly described below:

Task 1 – Traffic Study:

The vessel traffic study will characterize the existing fleet and traffic in the region and the quantities of oil and other hazardous cargoes being moved. The traffic study will also project growth in trade, changes in vessel design and size, and the impacts of known and reasonably expected regulatory changes over the study period.

Task 2 – Baseline Spill Study:

The baseline spill study will characterize the movements of oil and hazardous cargoes, estimate spill rates and frequency of accidents. The risk due to the introduction of invasive species (for examples, rats) will also be considered on a qualitative basis.

Following completion of tasks 1 and 2, a Marine Traffic and Baseline Spill Study Report will be prepared that summarizes the methods used and results of the modeling.

Task 3 - Characterizing Spills from the Highest-Risk Accidents:

Using findings from the traffic and baseline spill studies, a risk matrix will be produced to identify and characterize the higher risk accidents.

Task 4- Phase A Consequence Analysis:

Based on the spills and locations identified in Task 3, the consequence analysis will involve modeling numerous spill scenarios to evaluate the relative impact of spill size; types of hazardous substance spilled, and spill location on the environment. This will be accomplished by performing a qualitative assessment of the potential resource damage and socio-economic impact of a representative mix of spill events.

Task 5- Accident Scenario and Causality Study:

For the dominant accident types identified in Task 3, representative accident scenarios will be determined. These scenarios will be assigned probabilities of occurrence and presented with the associated consequences.

Following completion of tasks 3 through 5, the information and findings of the preliminary risk matrix, consequence analysis and accident scenarios will be summarized in the Consequence Analysis Report.

Task 6- Qualitative Assessment and Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options:

To complete Phase A, the project team will perform a qualitative assessment of risk reduction options. This will involve populating the risk matrices, compiling a list of risk reduction options, qualitatively assessing the benefits and costs of those options, and prioritizing the options.

Task 7- Evaluation of Risk Reduction Options:

This task will evaluate the effectiveness, order-of-magnitude cost, and ease of implementation of various risk reduction options.

Task 8- Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options:

Finally, we will rank the risk reduction options based on a variety of factors such as the likelihood of providing significant benefit, the satisfaction of cost-benefit analysis, and the consideration of uncertainty as it relates to the predicted efficacy of a given risk reduction option.